Mapping the distribution of three main malaria vectors Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles fluviatilis s.l. in South areas of Iran under climate change.
عنوان دوره: دومین کنگره بین المللی حشره شناسی ایران
نویسندگان
چکیده
Introduction: Malaria is an important vector borne disease in Southern areas of Iran. To predict, the best ecological niches of the main vectors such as: Anopheles stephensi, Anopheles culicifacies s.l. and Anopheles fluviatilis s. l. under global warming is critical for health decision makers.
Materials and Methods: A databank was created from all published data about Anopheles of Iran since 1961 till 2015. We applied an ecological niche modelling (GARP) for predicting Anopheles distribution maps to verify field observation data during 2015- 2016 in south malarious areas of Iran. Data were exported to SPSS ver. 16 for statistical analysis.
Results: We used pearson correlation for statistical study on field observation results to compare with predicted presence probability data obtained by GARP ( r = 0.149, p< 0.001). The regression coefficient test was F = 17.095, p< 0.001( ANOVA test).
Discussion: Results indicated that there is a high positive correlation between predicted results by GARP and our field observations. Since temperature and humidity have a main role in mosquitoes lifespan, regression coefficient test showed a direct relation between odds ratio of above mosquito species with season and geographical coordinates in GARP. In the otherwords we know climate change could affect the dispersal maps of Anopheles . GARP is a suitable model for predicting environmental niche for mosquitoes in a new climate. Iran is under elimination phase of malaria, such spatiotemporal studies could help official players involved with malaria to come better integrated vector management (IVM) strategies.
Materials and Methods: A databank was created from all published data about Anopheles of Iran since 1961 till 2015. We applied an ecological niche modelling (GARP) for predicting Anopheles distribution maps to verify field observation data during 2015- 2016 in south malarious areas of Iran. Data were exported to SPSS ver. 16 for statistical analysis.
Results: We used pearson correlation for statistical study on field observation results to compare with predicted presence probability data obtained by GARP ( r = 0.149, p< 0.001). The regression coefficient test was F = 17.095, p< 0.001( ANOVA test).
Discussion: Results indicated that there is a high positive correlation between predicted results by GARP and our field observations. Since temperature and humidity have a main role in mosquitoes lifespan, regression coefficient test showed a direct relation between odds ratio of above mosquito species with season and geographical coordinates in GARP. In the otherwords we know climate change could affect the dispersal maps of Anopheles . GARP is a suitable model for predicting environmental niche for mosquitoes in a new climate. Iran is under elimination phase of malaria, such spatiotemporal studies could help official players involved with malaria to come better integrated vector management (IVM) strategies.
کلیدواژه ها
malaria؛ Anopheles stephensi؛ Anopheles culicifacies s.l؛ Anopheles fluviatilis s.l؛ Iran؛ Modelling